The Rise of MLS: Can the Messi Effect Make Americans Embrace Soccer

The Rise of MLS: Can the Messi Effect Make Americans Embrace Soccer

In July 2023, Messi announced he was joining Inter Miami in Major League Soccer, sending shockwaves through global football. Overnight American soccer's profile soared, Inter Miami ticket prices jumped from 100 dollars to 5,000, and pink Messi jerseys sold out worldwide. In a matter of months Messi turned MLS from a secondary North American league into a global focal point.

But can the Messi effect make Americans truly embrace soccer? American soccer had a brief surge after the 1994 World Cup hosting, with MLS founded in 1996. Thirty years on, it remains the fourth-tier major North American professional sport behind football, basketball, and baseball. Messi's arrival is the third major opportunity for soccer in America, after Pele joining the New York Cosmos in the 1970s and the US hosting the 1994 World Cup. Can this one break through.

The Early History of American Soccer

The US Soccer Federation was founded in 1913, 50 years after the English FA. Early soccer was concentrated in colleges and immigrant communities. The US team's run to the semifinals of the 1930 World Cup was an early high point. The 1-0 upset of England at the 1950 World Cup remains one of the biggest shocks in World Cup history. But from 1950 to the 1990s American soccer entered a 50-year slump, all but vanishing from the World Cup stage. This long slump lowered soccer's standing in American mainstream sport.

Pele and the New York Cosmos in the 1970s

When the retired Brazilian king Pele joined the New York Cosmos in 1975, it was American soccer's first big shot. The North American Soccer League (NASL) was up and running, and the Cosmos invested heavily to sign Pele, Beckenbauer, Chinaglia, Neeskens and other world stars. By the late 1970s the NASL seemed close to success. Pele's 1977 farewell game drew nearly 80,000 fans. But the NASL overexpanded and was poorly managed, and it folded in 1984. The attempt failed but planted seeds.

Hosting the 1994 World Cup

The US hosting the 1994 World Cup was a watershed in American soccer history. FIFA required the US to establish a top-flight league as a condition of hosting. The US had no top-flight league at the time, and FIFA insisted. MLS was launched in 1996 with 10 teams as the answer. The 1994 tournament drew a record 3.5 million spectators that still stands. The final at the Rose Bowl drew 94,000. It was soccer's first large-scale exposure to mainstream American culture.

MLS's Early Struggles

From 1996 to 2005 MLS struggled to stay afloat. The league contracted, contracted again, and faced bankruptcy several times. Average attendance in 2002 was just 14,000, far below the NFL or MLB. A strict salary cap blocked top star signings. Sacramento, Tampa Bay, and Miami franchises folded. But MLS endured, stabilizing by reducing team count and slowly improving player quality.

The Beckham Rule and the Star Era

In 2007 MLS introduced the Designated Player rule, letting clubs sign players above the salary cap. The first DP was David Beckham at LA Galaxy. Beckham's 2007 to 2012 spell brought huge attention, but his impact was more commercial brand than on-field. Thierry Henry joined the New York Red Bulls, Andrea Pirlo went to NYCFC, Kaka to Orlando City, Steven Gerrard to LA Galaxy. Each star brought short-term buzz but the league's overall level rose only slowly.

Zlatan's Los Angeles Years

In 2018 Zlatan Ibrahimovic joined LA Galaxy. His first match he scored twice including a 40-meter chip, instantly stunning American fans. Over two seasons he scored 53 in 53 games, a level clearly above the rest of MLS. After returning to AC Milan he publicly mocked MLS's standard. This star-versus-league gap has been MLS's awkward truth: stars come and games look great, then they leave and the league reverts.

Messi's 2023 Arrival

Messi announcing his move to Inter Miami in July 2023 stunned the world. His PSG contract had run out, and Barcelona's finances ruled out a return. Saudi Arabia offered more money than Miami, but Messi chose the US. Reasons included an Apple TV global broadcast share, an Adidas sponsorship, future business opportunities, and an MLS franchise ownership option. Messi's first game ended with a stoppage-time winner against Cruz Azul to lift the Leagues Cup, making Inter Miami an instant global sensation.

The Hard Numbers on the Messi Effect

Before Messi, Inter Miami averaged 21,000 in attendance. After his arrival the average exceeded 28,000. Tickets jumped from 100 dollars to 500 to 5,000. Messi's jersey was among the best-selling globally in 2023. Apple TV MLS subscriptions surged. Tickets for away games against Miami carried 3-5x premiums. Everywhere Messi went became a sporting carnival. The short-term effect is enormous, but whether it can be converted into long-term growth remains to be seen.

The Fundamental Challenge for American Soccer

The fundamental challenge of American soccer is a saturated sports market. The NFL (football), NBA (basketball), MLB (baseball), and NHL (hockey) already dominate mainstream sport. Soccer has to wrestle eyeballs and broadcast slots from these leagues. Younger Americans are more receptive to soccer, and the Hispanic population (over 60 million) is a natural support base. But moving from fourth-place to mainstream still takes generations.

The 2026 World Cup Opportunity

The US will co-host the 2026 World Cup with Canada and Mexico, with 48 teams in the largest tournament ever. The final will be at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. This is American soccer's third major opportunity. FIFA expects hosting will lift American interest permanently. If combined with continued MLS improvement and US national team progress, American soccer truly becoming mainstream by the 2030s is conceivable. Understanding the Messi effect is key to understanding the long-term evolution of American soccer. One Messi cannot change America, but tens of thousands of small details might. From Pele in the 1970s to Messi in 2023, American soccer has been slowly approaching its tipping point.