Why Did the Yuan Dynasty Only Exist for 98 Years Before Its Collapse

The Fall of the Yuan Dynasty: When Conquest Gives Way to Chaos

In 1368 CE, Zhu Yuanzhang proclaimed himself emperor in Nanjing and established the Ming Dynasty. That same year, Ming forces launched a northern campaign and captured Dadu (present-day Beijing), forcing Yuan Emperor Toγon Temür to flee in panic to the steppes beyond the Great Wall. The Mongol Empire, which had once stretched across Eurasia and dominated the Central Plains, lasted a mere 98 years from Kublai Khan's establishment of the Yuan Dynasty in 1271. From the time when Genghis Khan's cavalry shattered half the world to when his descendants were driven out of China by peasant rebel forces, what exactly happened? Why did an empire built on horseback crumble so rapidly?

The Conqueror's Governance Dilemma

The Mongols were among history's greatest conquerors, yet conquering and governing are entirely different endeavors. Kublai Khan, grandson of Genghis Khan, changed the dynastic name to "Yuan" in 1271 and established his capital at Dadu, attempting to transform a nomadic empire into a ruler of an agricultural civilization. From the very beginning, however, this transformation was fraught with contradictions.

The Mongol nobility fiercely opposed Kublai Khan's path of sinicization. In 1260, Kublai Khan fought his brother Ariq Böke for the title of Great Khan, triggering the first internal war of the Mongol Empire. Although Kublai Khan ultimately prevailed, the Mongol Empire had effectively fractured into four major khanates—the Golden Horde, Chagatai Khanate, Ögedei Khanate, and Ilkhanate—which nominally recognized the Yuan Great Khan as their suzerain but in reality operated independently. Kublai Khan could neither secure the resources of the entire Mongol Empire nor adequately manage the vast and complex agricultural society of the Central Plains, finding himself in an awkward position that pleased neither the Mongol nobles nor the Chinese people.

More fatally, Mongol rulers never established an effective system of governance. They neither fully adopted the Song Dynasty's institutions nor created their own new system, instead cobbling together a hybrid framework. The central government mimicked the Han structure with a Chancellery and Six Ministries, while the local administration employed provincial branches. Yet they simultaneously maintained numerous privileged institutions for Mongols and Semu people (non-Han, non-Mongol minorities). This system lacked internal coherence and proved administratively inefficient, planting the seeds for countless subsequent problems.

The Four-Tiered System: A Society Split Asunder

The policy most condemned by posterity was the division of the entire population into four classes: first were Mongols; second were Semu people (primarily various ethnic groups from Central Asia and the western regions); third were Han people (including Han, Khitan, and Jurchen from the former Jin territories in the north); and fourth were southern people (Han and other ethnic groups from former Song territories in the south).

This hierarchical system permeated every aspect of social life. In criminal law, a Mongol who killed a Han person need only pay compensation equivalent to one donkey, whereas a Han person who killed a Mongol faced execution. In politics, virtually all key positions in central and local government were monopolized by Mongols and Semu people. In the Chancellery, for instance, only Mongols could serve as left and right chancellors, with Han people at best reaching the rank of Assistant Commissioner. At the local level, the position of Darughachi (chief magistrate) was reserved exclusively for Mongols or Semu people.

Perhaps most telling was the fate of the civil examination system. For a thousand years, the civil service examinations had been China's mechanism for social mobility and the nearly exclusive pathway through which humble families could change their fortunes. Yet the Yuan Dynasty did not restore the examinations until 1315, fully 44 years after its founding. Even after restoration, the quota allocation was grossly unfair: Mongols, Semu people, and Han people, southern people each received equal shares, but since the combined population of Mongols and Semu people was far smaller, they enjoyed dozens of times more opportunities per capita to gain official positions. Most absurdly, Mongols and Semu people took the "right examination" with far simpler questions compared to the "left examination" taken by Han and southern peoples.

This systemic discrimination had catastrophic consequences. On one hand, vast numbers of Han intellectuals were excluded from the political system, turning instead to drama and literary creation, which ironically sparked the flourishing of Yuan Dynasty plays but meant the empire lost its most capable administrative talent. On the other hand, the broader Han population developed extremely low identification with Mongol rule, and when crisis struck, they would not sacrifice themselves for this regime.

Economic Collapse: When Paper Money Causes Catastrophe

The Mongols committed a fatal error in economic policy: the reckless issuance of paper currency. The Yuan Dynasty was the first Chinese dynasty to implement a nationwide system of pure paper money. Kublai Khan issued the "Zhongtong Baochao" notes in 1260 and introduced the "Zhiyuan Baochao" in 1287, forcing the replacement of metal coins with paper currency. Initially, as the government could maintain exchange rates between paper notes and silver, the monetary system functioned adequately.

However, good times did not last long. In the mid and late Yuan period, Mongol nobility's extravagance intensified, and frequent foreign wars—Kublai Khan's two failed invasions of Japan and several costly expeditions against Annam and Java—depleted vast resources, leaving the government with mounting fiscal deficits. The solution? Print more money. Beginning in the Zhida era of Emperor Wuzong (1308), the court began massive issues of "Zhida Yinchao" notes, completely divorced from actual silver reserves. By Emperor Shun's reign (1333-1368), the government, desperate to meet various expenses, unleashed the printing presses with abandon. According to records, the amount of paper currency printed in a single year during the Zhizheng era exceeded the total issuance of the previous twenty years.

The inevitable result was runaway inflation. Prices skyrocketed; the paper notes in people's hands rapidly lost value, reducing lifelong savings to worthless scraps overnight. Folk ballads even circulated claiming: "Opening channels and printing notes—the root of disaster that brought ten thousand red bandits." People directly linked the reckless currency printing with the subsequent peasant uprisings.

Yuan Dynasty neglect of agriculture exacerbated the economic disaster. The Mongol nobility, originating from nomadic civilization, lacked understanding of and commitment to intensive agriculture. Vast tracts of farmland were converted into pastures; irrigation systems fell into disrepair. Meanwhile, peasants' taxes and labor obligations only increased. When natural disasters struck, this fragile agricultural economy completely collapsed.

Natural Calamities and Human Suffering: The Yellow River and the Great Plague

In the Yuan Dynasty's final years, natural disasters struck with unusual ferocity, as if heaven itself was rendering judgment on this dynasty.

In 1344 (Zhizheng 4), the Yellow River burst its banks at Baimao Dike, flooding vast regions of Henan and Shandong provinces. Over subsequent years, the Yellow River repeatedly changed course and broke through its dikes, displacing millions. The Yuan government, after hesitating for more than a decade, finally ordered in 1351 the conscription of 150,000 laborers and 20,000 soldiers for Yellow River management, with Prime Minister Toktotakh directing and Jia Ru overseeing the actual engineering.

While necessary, this river management project came at the worst possible time and manner. The 150,000 starving, freezing conscripts were forced to work sites where they faced hunger, cold, and the whips of overseers. A folk rhyme circulated among the workers: "A stone man with one eye shall stir the Yellow River and all under heaven to revolt." Indeed, when workers discovered a one-eyed stone statue while excavating the riverbed, long-suppressed rage finally erupted.

Simultaneously, a far more terrifying catastrophe swept across the Yuan Empire: plague. From the 1340s through the 1350s, the Mongol Empire's trade networks spread plague originating in Central Asia in both eastward and westward directions. Westward, it became the "Black Death" in Europe, killing one-third of the European population; eastward, it caused equally catastrophic population losses in China. Estimates suggest that late Yuan warfare and plague reduced China's population from approximately 120 million to roughly 60 million—nearly a fifty percent decline.

Fires of Rebellion: The Red Turban Army and the Contest for Empire

In May 1351, Han Shantong and Liu Futong launched an uprising in Yingzhou (present-day Fuyang, Anhui), with rebels identified by red cloth wrapped around their heads. They proclaimed "Maitreya Buddha descends, the Ming King emerges"—the "Red Turban Rebellion." Though Han Shantong was captured and executed before the uprising's success, Liu Futong rapidly expanded the rebellion, capturing Yingzhou, Bozhou and other cities. In 1355, he enthroned Han Shantong's son Han Linger as the "Young Ming King," establishing the "Longfeng" regime.

The Red Turban uprising ignited a powder keg. Within years, rebellion fires spread throughout China: Xu Shouhui raised forces in Qizhou (present-day Qichun, Hubei) and established the "Tiancomplete" regime; Peng Yingyu agitated through religious teaching in Jiangxi; Zhang Shicheng led a salt marsh uprising in Taizhou (present-day Taizhou, Jiangsu), capturing the prosperous city of Suzhou; Fang Guozhen was among the first to rise in Zhejiang's coastal regions, controlling vital maritime trade routes.

Facing these widespread rebellion fires, Yuan's military machine had severely rusted. Mongol cavalry had once swept across the world, but after nearly a century of peaceful stationing within China's borders, the Mongol forces had lost their ancestors' combat effectiveness. The Yuan Dynasty had to rely on Han warlords to suppress rebellions, most famously Çahan Temür and his foster son Körgis Temür (Chinese name Wang Baobao). Though these regional powers effectively contained some rebellious forces, by hoarding troops and warring among themselves, they further weakened central authority.

Palace Intrigue: Self-Destruction of the Rulers

As external crises intensified, internal power struggles within the Yuan court only escalated rather than diminished. After Kublai Khan's death in 1294, imperial succession became highly unstable: in just 39 years until Emperor Shun's accession in 1333, nine emperors ruled, many dying in palace coups. These frequent power transfers severely undermined central authority.

Emperor Shun (Toγon Temür) was the Yuan Dynasty's final emperor and the longest-reigning (1333-1370). In his early reign, Prime Minister Toktotakh implemented a series of reforms, including restoring civil examinations, compiling histories of the Liao, Jin, and Song dynasties, and managing the Yellow River, creating a brief appearance of dynastic revival. However, in 1355 Toktotakh was framed by rival Hama, dismissed from office, and exiled to his death. Toktotakh's fall marked the failure of the Yuan Dynasty's last self-rescue attempt.

Thereafter, Emperor Shun indulged in Tibetan Buddhism's tantric practices and sensual pleasures while court affairs fell into the hands of successive factions. Most fatally, the court split into two camps: the military clique led by Körgis Temür and the imperial relatives' faction led by Böl Temür. As the state faced crisis, these two sides even waged internal war. In 1364, Böl Temür actually led armies to attack the capital, forcing Emperor Shun to surrender power. This internal struggle consumed Yuan's remaining military strength, gifting southern rebels precious time to recover and grow stronger.

Zhu Yuanzhang: From Beggar to Emperor

In the chaotic struggle among various powers, a man of the humblest origins ultimately rose above them all: Zhu Yuanzhang.

Zhu Yuanzhang was born in 1328 into a poor peasant family in Fengyang, Anhui. The great famine and plague of 1344 claimed his parents and elder brother. At just 16 years old, Zhu Yuanzhang was forced into a monastery as a monk—in reality, wandering as a beggar. In 1352, at age 25, he joined Guo Zixing's Red Turban forces and rapidly rose through extraordinary military talent and political acumen. After Guo's death, Zhu Yuanzhang took command of his forces and, using Nanjing (then called "Yingtian") as his base, began his campaign to unify China.

Zhu Yuanzhang's brilliance lay in his strategic sequencing: "Build walls high, store grain abundantly, take the throne slowly." He did not rush northward but first consolidated the Yangtze River valley base, then systematically eliminated neighboring rivals. In the 1363 Battle of Poyang Lake, his 200,000 forces defeated Chen Youjang's 600,000-strong army in the largest inland naval battle in Chinese history, lasting 36 days. In 1367, he destroyed Zhang Shicheng's forces occupying Suzhou; that same year he eliminated Fang Guozhen in Zhejiang.

After clearing the south, Zhu Yuanzhang dispatched Xu Da and Chang Yuchun with 250,000 troops on the northern campaign in 1367. The proclamation's phrase "Drive out the barbarians and restore China" resonated powerfully with the Han population. Yuan regional commanders either surrendered or fled, mounting virtually no effective resistance. In August 1368, Ming forces surrounded Dadu; Emperor Shun fled that very night from the Jiande Gate with his concubines and heir, withdrawing through Juyongguan Pass to Shangdu (present-day Zhenglan Banner, Inner Mongolia). Yuan's rule in the Central Plains ended.

Comparison and Reflection: Different Fates of the Mongol Empires

Interestingly, the various Mongol khanates had quite different trajectories. The Golden Horde's rule in Russia lasted approximately 240 years (1240-1480), while the Chagatai Khanate's existence in Central Asia exceeded 300 years. Why was the Yuan Dynasty so short-lived in comparison?

The fundamental reason lies in the civilizational gap and population ratio between rulers and ruled. In Central Asia and Russia, Mongols faced relatively dispersed nomadic or semi-nomadic societies with civilizational levels not radically different from the Mongols themselves, making assimilation more feasible. In China, however, Mongols faced a civilization with thousands of years of history and highly developed agricultural systems, with a population a hundred times greater than the rulers. Under such circumstances, success required either complete assimilation (as with the Xianbei of the Northern Wei) or establishing a sufficiently fair system to earn the ruled peoples' consent. The Yuan Dynasty achieved neither; it refused complete sinicization while denying Han people equal status, ultimately trapping itself in a dead end.

Ninety-eight years are but a fleeting moment in China's thousands of years of history. The Yuan Dynasty's fall resulted not from any single factor but from multiple cascading crises: systemic discrimination, economic collapse, natural disasters, and internal strife. Perhaps the most profound lesson it leaves posterity is this: no matter how powerful military forces may be, if they cannot transform into just and effective governance, the conqueror's throne remains forever an unstable seat. One may conquer the realm on horseback, but one can never govern it the same way. The Yuan Dynasty's 98-year rise and fall wrote the most complete annotation to this eternal truth.