Could the Northern Song Dynasty Have Recovered Lost Territories If Yue Fei Had Not Been Executed

The Death of Yue Fei: What If History Had Gone Differently?

On the twenty-ninth day of the twelfth month of the eleventh year of the Shaoxing era—January 27, 1142 by the Western calendar—Yue Fei, the most outstanding military commander of the Southern Song dynasty, was executed in the prison of the Dali Temple in Lin'an at the age of only thirty-nine. His eldest son Yue Yun and general Zhang Xian were executed alongside him. When the jailer asked about the charges, the presiding judge Wan Suyan answered with just three characters: "Mo xu you"—"Perhaps there is [evidence]." Han Shizhong questioned Qin Hui: "How can these three words 'perhaps there is' convince the world?" Qin Hui had no reply. For more than eight hundred years, these three characters have become the most famous label of injustice in Chinese history, while a question that has haunted countless minds has remained unanswered: if Yue Fei had not been executed, could he truly have recovered the Central Plains and struck at the Jurchen heartland?

The Brilliant Military Achievements of the Yue Family Army

To answer this hypothetical question, we must first understand just how formidable a commander Yue Fei truly was.

Yue Fei rose to prominence during the Jianyan era and was killed in the eleventh year of Shaoxing—a military career spanning merely more than a decade, yet one that created military miracles that still astound. The Yue Family Army he commanded grew from an initial few thousand soldiers to a force of one hundred thousand, making it the strongest fighting force of the Southern Song. The Yue Family Army maintained strict discipline—soldiers "would freeze to death without dismantling houses" and "would starve to death without looting"—a rare virtue in an age when soldiers and bandits were indistinguishable.

Yue Fei's military talent manifested on multiple levels. Strategically, he proposed a "linking up with the river regions" policy, coordinating with anti-Jin resistance forces in the occupied Central Plains to create a pincer movement from north and south. Tactically, he excelled at using infantry to counter the cavalry that the Jin army prided itself upon, developing a set of countermeasures against the Jin's "crooked horse formations" (heavily armored cavalry) and "iron floating fortresses" (iron-clad chained war horses): he ordered soldiers to wield hemp-cutting knives and large axes to specifically slash at the horses' legs, rendering the cavalry advantage completely ineffective.

From the recovery of Jiankang (present-day Nanjing) in the fourth year of Jianyan (1130), to the recovery of six prefectures in Xiangyang in the fourth year of Shaoxing (1134), to the fourth northern campaign in the tenth year of Shaoxing (1140), Yue Fei had virtually never suffered defeat. His military record was nearly perfect: hundreds of large and small battles with not a single loss. Even the Jin people themselves sighed: "It is easier to shake a mountain than to shake the Yue Family Army."

The Victory at Yancheng: Shattering the Jin's Myth of Invincibility

The pinnacle of Yue Fei's military career came in the seventh month of the tenth year of Shaoxing (1140). That year, the Jin state broke the peace agreement, and Wanyan Zongbi (Jin Wu Shu) led a great army southward, attempting to annihilate the Song in one blow. The Song court ordered Yue Fei to march northward from E Prefecture (present-day Wuchang), in what became known as the fourth northern campaign.

Yue Fei divided his forces into multiple routes, advancing with overwhelming momentum. His advance forces successively recovered Yingchang (present-day Xu Prefecture in Henan), Chenzhou (present-day Huaiyang in Henan), Zhengzhou, and Luoyang, with the common people of the Central Plains "placing bowls of incense to welcome the royal army from afar." On the eighth day of the seventh month, Wanyan Zongbi personally led fifteen thousand elite cavalry, including the most formidable "iron floating fortresses" and "crooked horse formations," to strike directly at Yancheng where Yue Fei was stationed, attempting to crush the main force of the Yue Family Army in one stroke.

This was the famous Battle of Yancheng. The "iron floating fortresses" were the Jin's trump card unit—three horses connected by leather ropes, with riders in full heavy armor, advancing like moving iron walls to crush all before them. Previously, Song forces facing such an onslaught were nearly helpless. But Yue Fei was well prepared. He ordered soldiers to wield hemp-cutting knives and large axes, not to resist the cavalry charge directly, but to aim precisely at the horses' legs. When one horse fell, all three connected horses would flip over; when subsequent cavalry charged forward, they were blocked by the fallen horses and men, and their formation immediately collapsed.

The battle raged from afternoon until nightfall. Yue Fei personally led more than forty cavalry to charge into the enemy formation, greatly boosting morale. Ultimately, Wanyan Zongbi suffered a crushing defeat. The "iron floating fortresses" and "crooked horse formations," two units that the Jin most prided themselves on, suffered catastrophic losses. According to the History of Song, the Jin army became "men of blood and horses of blood," with corpses littering the field.

On the fourteenth day of the seventh month, Yue Yun led eight hundred elite cavalry of the背嵬 (Beikui) forces to achieve another great victory over the Jin at Yingchang, killing more than five thousand enemy soldiers. Wanyan Zongbi's son-in-law, General Xia Jinwu, was slain on the spot, and Deputy Commander Nianhan Bojin also fell in battle. With this, the main Jin force suffered a crippling blow, and Wanyan Zongbi lamented: "Since I rose in the north, I have never experienced such a defeat as today."

Zhu Xian Town and the Twelve Gold Tablets

After the successive great victories at Yancheng and Yingchang, Yue Fei pressed his advantage, with his advance forces reaching Zhu Xian Town, just forty-five miles from Kaifeng, the former capital of Northern Song. Regarding the Battle of Zhu Xian Town, orthodox histories have little to say, but folk accounts and some historical sources claim that Yue Fei with five hundred elite cavalry smashed a Jin force of one hundred thousand, and Wanyan Zongbi prepared to flee across the river. Anti-Jin resistance forces throughout the Central Plains responded en masse, and common people in Hebei and Hedong "welcomed the royal army with cattle and wine," with unrest spreading throughout Jin-occupied territories.

Just as the situation seemed entirely favorable, a dramatic reversal occurred in Lin'an. In the seventh month of the tenth year of Shaoxing, Emperor Gaozong Zhao Gou issued no fewer than twelve gold tablets (actually gold-character urgent dispatch tablets) in a single day, ordering Yue Fei to retreat. Gold-character tablets were the highest level of urgent military communication in the Southern Song, traveling five hundred li per day, with relay stations obligated to transmit them immediately, and recipients unable to disobey.

When Yue Fei received the first gold tablet, he reportedly disregarded it and continued advancing. But gold tablets kept arriving, one after another, and when twelve tablets lay before him, Yue Fei could no longer resist orders. Facing north, with tears streaming down his face, he spoke those heartbreaking words: "The efforts of ten years, destroyed in a single day! All the prefectures we recovered, all lost at once! The empire and realm difficult to restore! Heaven and earth impossible to recover again!"

Yue Fei was forced to retreat. When the people of the Central Plains learned the news, their cries shook the land; they blocked his horse and refused to let him go. Yue Fei showed them the imperial decree and, weeping, said: "I cannot remain of my own authority." He remained in the region for five days, arranging for those willing to relocate south to follow his army, before departing with bitter regret. Less than two years later, Yue Fei was unjustly executed.

Why Zhao Gou Had to Kill Yue Fei

Many attribute Yue Fei's death to Qin Hui, but in reality, the person who truly wanted Yue Fei dead was Emperor Gaozong Zhao Gou himself. Qin Hui was merely the executor and facilitator; without Zhao Gou's approval, Qin Hui would never have dared touch Yue Fei. So why did Zhao Gou need to kill this commander of brilliant achievements in resisting the Jin?

The first reason, and the most fundamental: Yue Fei's political slogans violated Zhao Gou's greatest taboo. Yue Fei constantly shouted for "welcoming back the two sage emperors"—referring to the Song Huizong and Song Qinzong who had been captured by the Jin. This sounded like loyal patriotism to ordinary people, but to Zhao Gou's ears it was a mortal threat. Zhao Gou's throne ultimately came to him only because Huizong and Qinzong had been taken captive by the Jin. If Yue Fei truly reached Huanglongfu and brought the two emperors back, where would Zhao Gou sit? Although Song Huizong had already died in 1135 at Wuguo city, Song Qinzong Zhao Huan was still alive. Should Qinzong return, the fundamental legitimacy of Zhao Gou's imperial position would be challenged.

The second reason: Zhao Gou's fear of the military elite. In early Southern Song, various anti-Jin military forces had already developed into semi-autonomous regional powers, with the Yue family, Han family, Zhang family, and Liu family armies each commanding roughly one hundred thousand troops, with warlords' control over their armies far exceeding that of the court. Zhao Gou well understood the tragic lessons of late Tang warlordism and the Five Dynasties military chaos. What he wanted was a weak but obedient military, not a strong commander who might spin out of control. Yue Fei not only commanded the largest forces but also enjoyed extremely high prestige in the military, with the Yue Family Army knowing only Yue Fei and not the court, which made Zhao Gou deeply uneasy.

The third reason: in his bones, Zhao Gou simply did not want to fight. In the third year of Jianyan (1129), as the Jin army pursued Zhao Gou, he fled from Yangzhou to Hangzhou, then from Hangzhou to Mingzhou (present-day Ningbo), and finally escaped by boat to sea, drifting for four months off Wenzhou before daring to land. This harrowing experience of "searching mountains and checking seas" left a deep psychological scar on Zhao Gou. His core objective was never to "recover the Central Plains" but to "preserve half the empire." So long as the Jin did not invade, he was content to pay annual tribute and call himself the Jin emperor's "nephew." Yue Fei's existence and his advocacy of northern campaigns were precisely destroying Zhao Gou's plan to negotiate peace with the Jin.

As for Qin Hui, after becoming prime minister for the second time in the eighth year of Shaoxing (1138), he became the chief executor of Zhao Gou's peace policy. After being captured by the Jin and later released, Qin Hui had long been suspected of being a Jin "inner agent." Regardless of the truth of this suspicion, Qin Hui's interests were certainly highly aligned with those of the Jin: the Jin also wanted Yue Fei dead, because Yue Fei was their most feared opponent. Wanyan Zongbi even directly wrote to Qin Hui saying: "Only if Fei is killed can we make peace." Qin Hui then fabricated charges, imprisoned Yue Fei for "treason," and ultimately had him executed on New Year's Eve of the eleventh year of Shaoxing.

If Yue Fei Had Continued the Northern Campaign: An Analysis of Military Possibilities

Now back to the original question: if Zhao Gou had not issued the twelve gold tablets, if Yue Fei had not been recalled, if he could have continued leading his army northward, could the Southern Song have recovered the lost territories?

From a military perspective, Yue Fei had a significant probability of recovering Kaifeng and the Central Plains. The reasons are as follows:

First, the Jin army of 1140 was not the formidable force it had been when it destroyed Northern Song in 1127. Wanyan Zongbi's main force suffered severe losses at Yancheng and Yingchang, with morale plummeting. The Jin's core combat strength, the "iron floating fortresses" and "crooked horse formations," had lost their advantage against Yue Fei's tactics—a predicament unprecedented since the Jin's founding.

Second, the Jin state was rife with internal contradictions. Wanyan Zongbi had seized power through a coup, killing the peace-faction members Wanyan Chang and Wanyan Zongpan, with opposition forces within the court. Once news of the devastating defeat at Yancheng reached the Jin capital, turmoil likely would have erupted. Indeed, even Wanyan Zongbi himself, after defeat at Yancheng, was preparing to abandon Kaifeng and cross the river northward.

Third, the anti-Jin forces in Jin-occupied territories were a factor not to be ignored. Yue Fei's "linking up with the river regions" strategy had already shown results, with resistance armies throughout Hebei and Hedong rising to support Yue Fei's northern campaign. When Zhongyi Society leader Liang Xing led forces across the river and inflicted major defeats on the Jin in the Taihang Mountains, if Yue Fei could have continued advancing, these forces would have created a snowball effect.

However, to truly recover all the lost northern territories, including the Sixteen Prefectures of Yan and Yun and the northeast, would have faced enormous difficulties.

First, there was the logistics problem. Yue Fei's one hundred thousand troops penetrating the Central Plains would extend supply lines ever longer. The Southern Song's economic center was in the Jiangnan region, and northern campaign logistics were already strained; if the front line advanced north of the Yellow River, supply would become even more difficult. In ancient warfare, logistics often decided victory more than combat itself.

Second, there was the issue of coordinated forces. Although Yue Fei was an excellent commander, he was only one route among multiple Southern Song armies. If other directions' forces—Han Shizhong's army, Zhang Jun's army, Liu Qi's army—could not effectively coordinate, Yue Fei would become an isolated spearhead. In fact, Zhang Jun's performance in the淮西 campaign was far inferior to Yue Fei's; if he could not pin down the Jin's flanking forces, Yue Fei's campaign would risk being surrounded.

Third, there was the question of strategic depth. The Jin's core base was in the northeast, and even if they lost the Central Plains, they could still retreat north of the Yanshan Mountains or even to the Songhua River region to regroup. The Jurchen were a nomadic and hunting people with extremely high mobility, unlike the Song army which depended on cities. To completely destroy the Jin required not one or two brilliant victories but sustained strategic pressure over years or even decades—something requiring total support from the entire Southern Song court, precisely what Yue Fei lacked most.

History Has No "What Ifs," But Lessons Remain Eternally True

Overall, the most likely historical trajectory would have been: had Yue Fei not been recalled, he would probably have recovered Kaifeng and the Central Plains core, pushing the Song-Jin border from the Huai River northward to the Yellow River or beyond. The Jin would have been forced to accept a peace settlement far more favorable to the Southern Song than the Shaoxing Treaty. But to "strike directly at the Jurchen heartland," completely destroy the Jin, and recover all northern territories would have been nearly impossible under contemporary conditions.

However, history is not a mathematics problem, not merely a matter of military arithmetic. The true tragedy of Yue Fei's death lay in this: it not only ended one general's life, but completely destroyed the Southern Song's spirit of advance. After Yue Fei's execution, the Southern Song never again produced a general who dared shout "return our rivers and mountains to us." After the Shaoxing Treaty was signed, the Southern Song annually paid the Jin twenty-five thousand silver taels and twenty-five thousand bolts of silk, called the Jin emperor "father," and referred to Zhao Gou as "nephew emperor." A court that killed its own strongest general and then bowed to call the enemy "father" had its fate already sealed.

By Yue Fei's tomb hangs a couplet that has survived eight hundred years: "The green mountain