After the expansion of 48 teams, will the World Cup look better or worse?

The 2026 World Cup will be expanded to 48 teams for the first time, and FIFA vows that this is a great step for inclusive football. But the European football circle was in a state of shock. Old fans were the most scolding on social media. European Champions Cup commentator Martin Taylor publicly said that this was FIFA's attempt to make money by turning the World Cup into the world's beach volleyball. French coach Deschamps also stated that the expansion will make the first two rounds less enjoyable.

Whether it looks good or has gone bad, this controversy has been quarreling since the day FIFA voted to approve the military expansion plan in 2017 until today, and there is no conclusion.

How will the military expansion plan change specifically?

In 2026, 48 teams will be divided into 12 groups of 4 teams each. The top two in each group plus the 8 third-placed teams with the best results will enter the top 32 knockout rounds. The number of games will skyrocket from 64 to 104 in 2022, and the season will be extended from 28 to 39 days.

Each team plays at least 3 group stage games, and with good luck can play 8 games. The total match time of the entire World Cup is equivalent to half a Premier League season, and the intensity is a huge challenge to the players' physical fitness.

Three reasons to support military expansion

The first is to allow more countries to participate in the World Cup. The number of places in Africa has increased from 5 to 9.5, and in Asia from 4.5 to 8.5, giving small national football associations the opportunity to stand on the world's top stage.

The second is economic gain. The previous bonus article mentioned that the total bonus pool will increase by 2.5 times in 2026. FIFA will allocate more money to national football associations, and global football resources will flow to small and medium-sized countries.

The third is commercial exposure. 40 more games means 40 more advertising spots, 40 more sponsor exposures, and 40 more TV broadcast shares. FIFA calls this the overall prosperity of the football ecosystem.

Core reasons for opposing military expansion

The most fierce opposition is the European Club Association ECA. They protested that if the expansion of the military forces players to play more than 70 games a year, the injury rate will skyrocket. Real Madrid president Florentino directly said that FIFA is squeezing players. The stars that the club spent hundreds of millions of euros to buy may be out of the World Cup for the entire season.

The second objection is quality. The 32-team group stage has often seen games with large disparities between strengths and weaknesses. In the 2018 World Cup in Russia, Saudi Arabia faced Russia 0-5 and Panama faced England 1-6. After 48 teams, more similar fringe teams will enter. There may be a large number of 5-0 or 6-1 disparities in the first two rounds, turning the World Cup into a club friendly match.

Historical precedents for military expansion

This is not the first time that the World Cup has expanded. There were 16 teams in the second session in 1934, expanded to 24 teams in 1982, and expanded to 32 teams in 1998. Before each military expansion, some people cried foul, but in the end, the opponents lost because the stories and emotions brought by the new small countries became the World Cup's signature.

Cameroon defeated Argentina in 1990, South Korea reached the semi-finals in 2002, and Morocco entered the semi-finals in 2022. These dark horse miracles all come from the dividends of army expansion. If it were still a 16-team system, these stories would never have happened.

Actual data on the disparity between strengths and weaknesses

Looking back at the first World Cup in 1998, when the field was expanded to 32 teams, 18% of the games in the group stage had a goal difference of more than 3 goals. In 1994, when the 24-team format was played, the figure was 15%. In other words, the expansion of the army increased the proportion of disparity games by 3 percentage points, but the overall viewing rate of the entire World Cup did not drop significantly.

The proportion of 5-0 games that the opposition is worried about has been stable at around 5% in the history of the World Cup, and has not increased sharply due to the expansion of the army. This data gives FIFA the confidence to advance the 48-team plan.

Real risk of player injury

ECA said that the expansion of the army will lead to a surge in player injuries, which FIFA also admits. The 2022 World Cup in Qatar starts in November, disrupting the European club season. Many stars including Kante, Benzema, and Kounde were injured before the game and missed the World Cup.

The 2026 World Cup will start from June to July, returning to the normal window in terms of time, but the 39-day season plus 104 games means that the main players need to play more games. European clubs are already talking to FIFA about shortening the season, but there is no consensus in the short term.

The top 32 knockout rounds are a new attraction

The 48-team system brings a brand new link, which is the top 32 knockout round. Under the 32-team World Cup, entering the knockout rounds is the top 16, and there is no such intermediate transition.

The top 32 gives both strong and weak teams the opportunity to play a rematch, especially the third-placed team in the group. This is the first time in the history of the World Cup that there is a rematch mechanism. Some fans feel that this adds to the drama, while other fans feel that this weakens the tension of the group stage. Anyway, if you reach the top 32, you will have another chance, and you don't have to work hard in the final round of the group.

FIFA’s real plan

FIFA's real plan for this expansion is to pave the way for the 2034 World Cup in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has successfully bid to host the 2034 World Cup. Saudi Arabia hopes that the 48-team system will allow more countries in the Arab world to participate.

The close relationship between FIFA and Saudi Arabia has caused some Western media to worry about the political tilt of the World Cup. The 2022 Qatar World Cup has been criticized for human rights issues, and there will certainly be similar controversies when Saudi Arabia hosts the 2034 World Cup. The expansion to 48 teams is FIFA giving more places to Asian football, which is equivalent to sending a favor to Saudi Arabia in advance.

Look at the true attitude of the fans

An international fan survey showed that 60% of fans support military expansion, 30% oppose it, and 10% are neutral. Supporters are mostly in Africa, Asia, and North America, while opponents are mostly in Europe and South America. This reflects the regional differences in World Cup culture, with European fans placing greater emphasis on quality and Asian and African fans placing greater emphasis on participation.

FIFA finally decided to support the majority, after all, European fans are only a minority. However, money from the European market still accounts for more than 50% of FIFA's total revenue, and FIFA does not dare to offend Europe. This contradiction makes the 2026 World Cup a testing ground. Whether military expansion is good or bad depends on actual combat performance.

It's too early to judge now

Whether the 48-team World Cup will be good or bad, no one can make a conclusion until the final whistle blows in the final at MetLife Stadium in the United States in July 2026. Optimists expect frequent dark horses from Africa, Asia, and North America, while pessimists predict that the group stage will turn into a bloodbath. Regardless of the outcome, this is the biggest institutional change in the history of the World Cup, and the landscape of the football world may be reshuffled from now on.